Brief information about the National development strategy of Tajikistan for the period till 2030

The system approach of the National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan up to the period of 2030 is based on three basic principles for future development: 

1. prevention (reducing vulnerability of future development), 
2. industrial (effective use of national resources)
3. innovativeness (the development on the basis of innovations in all spheres of socio-economic life of the country).

The ultimate goal of the long-term development of Tajikistan is to increase the living standards of the population on the basis of sustainable economic development, which is characterized by the following strategic development objectives:

• ensuring energy security;
• development of communication possibilities of the country;
• ensuring food security and nutrition;
• expansion of productive employment.

In the framework of the NDS-2030 there are three main tasks at the new stage of development: first, to achieve the level of socio-economic development comparable to countries of the middle segment with an average income; secondly, to ensure sustainability through the diversification and increasing competitiveness of the national economy and thirdly, to expand and strengthen the middle class.

To address the first problem it is necessary to:

• keep a steady pace of economic growth at 7-8%;
• increase GDP of the country 3 or more times;
• increase more than 2.5 times the level of GDP per capita;
• reduce more than 2 times the poverty level and eradicate extreme poverty;
• significantly increase expenditure (cost) on social protection of the population. 

For the second challenge it is vital:

• to ensure a higher rate of industrial growth and increase its share in the GDP of the country;
• increase the efficiency of agriculture and increase its contribution to food security, including nutrition;
•  to accelerate pace of growth in the services a higher degree of difficulty;
• to promote diversification of the national economy (index of concentration of exports on three major products from 83% to 58%);
• to increase the level of competitiveness of the national economy.

Implementation of these tasks will allow up to 2030 to take 60th place in the ranking of Doing Business (current position is 132nd place among 189 countries).

To meet the third challenge it is necessary to increase the share of the middle class up to 50% in 2030. Key activities under this task should be:

• promotion of incomes of the population, especially the rural population, youth and women;
• creation of conditions for decent and productive work, including the employment of vulnerable segments of the population;
• reduction of the inequality level in the society.

There are three separate scenarios for the implementation of the three main tasks: 

1. inertial, 
2. industrial
3. industrial-innovative.

It should be noted, that the NDS-2030 consists of three phases of development: 

1. the transition to a new model of economic development (2016-2020 years); 
2. rapid development of the economy to attract investments (2021-2025 years.)
3. speeded up industrialization by increasing capacity, including the development of science and innovation (2026-2030 years).

The first stage is based on the development of industrial areas. With this model, there will be a rapid growth in industry, agriculture and the financial sector.

In the second stage of economic development would be enhanced the foreign direct investment. At this stage of the strategy, energy security is its main goal to fully meet the needs of the economy. In addition, during this period, would be completed the construction and rehabilitation of the transport corridors, and the issue of railway deadlock of the country would be solved.

The third phase would be the development of science, technology and innovation. I.e. this is the introduction of advanced technologies to facilitate growth of human capital.